Welcome to week 3 of WA DAWGS!

Recap of Week Two:

Week two was different from what we intended. We are entered into three contests for 5ATS games per week.

• Westgate Supercontest (5ATS per week)
• Circa Millions (5ATS per week)
• Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em at the Snoqualmie casino in Washington state.

From the beginning, we decided the five games we picked, we would apply to all three contests. Our strategy was not to vary on the picks and just stick to the five that we liked the best. 

So, the five we picked were: 

• Pittsburgh +2.5-covered
• New England +2.5- didn’t cover
• Buffalo -8.5- covered
• Cincinnati -3.5-didn’t cover
• Seattle +4.5-covered

Well, as you can see, we got 3/2. Darn those Bengals and Patriots. In hindsight (always 20/20), the Bengals at -3.5 was not a good pick, and Miami is much better than we initially thought.

But the crazy thing is… when we went to the Snoqualmie casino, their lines for the contest had not changed from the look-ahead lines. This was just for the Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em contest. So don’t go flying here to Washington state to make bets bc the sportsbook had all the updated lines, except for the contest. We instantly changed our 5 picks when we saw these lines.

This is what we ended up picking for the Snoqualmie casino contest:

• Chiefs -2.5 (less than the 3.0–they could win by a FG)-covered
• Dallas -3 (can you believe this gift bc the line was -9.5!)-covered
• Buffalo -8.5-covered
• Cincinnati -3.5-didn’t cover
• Seattle +4.5-covered

For the Snoqualmie casino–we went 4/1.

We Survived another week! We took the Buffalo Bills for the Circa Survivor contest, and they won (against the Las Vegas Raiders). So we are still alive and kicking! 

Let’s March Forward to Week 3!

At this time–early Thursday morning, we are still quite undecided about the 5 ATS games. We have our leans, but they are too ‘chalky.’ It feels so unclear. More unclear to us than week one. Now, if the Snoqualmie casino still keeps its original look-ahead lines, that will be easy. But they might have figured out that the lines need to be updated, or perhaps they just don’t care. And whoever wins will win. 

These are our leans in general:

• NY Jets +2.5 (against the New England Patriots)

NE losing again in week 3? They would be 0/3 if they lost to the Jets. That is what I thought last week. That NE couldn’t possibly lose a second week in a row at home with legendary coach Bill Belichick. Well, guess what? NE lost to Miami. Perhaps it will be a close matchup, with the Jets losing by 1 or 2. But I am on the side of the Jet with this one. Zach Wilson, has the face of a cherub angel, yet lacks in QB talent for passing and throwing completions. I’m still leaning toward the Jets, bc the Jet’s defense is that good. 

• Miami Dolphins -6.5 (against the Denver Broncos)

I think we underestimated the Dolphins. Two road games and won handily weeks one and two against the Chargers and Patriots. It’s hard to believe that the Broncos could go 0 and 3, which would almost assurely keep them out of the playoffs. But I do think Miami will win this week. But laying six and a half points on it? I’m not sure. Our math model points to the Dolphins covering the spread but the other factors make me hesitant to pull the trigger to take them ATS.

• Baltimore Ravens -8 (against the Indianapolis Colts)

Lamar Jackson is living up to the 200+ million dollar contract with the Ravens at 2 and 0, plus covering the spreads week one and two. Can they keep it going for week three? Eight points is a lot to lay. Leaning toward the Ravens but undecided. I def could see the Ravens winning but by 8 points?? Our math model shows them winning by 10 but that a hard one to take. Still dwelling on this one. 

• Seattle Seahawks -6 (against the Carolina Panthers)

Six points is quite the hook to take the Seahawls against the Panthers. Do we take the bait? Seahawks have some injuries but they also have some great talent on the team. And Gino Smith played the game of his life last week against Detroit and they won (and covered). Do the Hawks swoop in and take the win? I’m sure they will. But at 6 ats? I think so. 

• Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (against the Las Vegas Raiders):

The Steelers messed up our week one (we went 4 and 1). Week two we took them against the Browns and they squeeked it out and covered. I said I would avoid the Steelers for the rest of the season bc their offense is not good. But here I stand at week three seriously contemplating taking the Steelers at a +2.5 over the Raiders in Las Vegas. I am going to kick myself later but my math really points to some value here and I love the math. I know there are other factors pushing the Steelers away from this ATS cover. But I could see some value here taking the Steelers at a +2.5.

Other Thoughts:

Our math model did point to the New Orleans Saints having 2 points of value against the Green Bay Packers. But there are so many more factors than just the math. Green Bay tends to play really well at home. But we still don’t know enough about Jordan Love as a QB. NO has won their last two games, but didn’t cover week one and pushed at most books week 2. NO has a ton of talent and Derek Carr, along with that lush lower lashline, has a great arm. Just haven’t seen them really play well offensively. NO defense is on point. So while I do find value in NO, still can’t pull the trigger on this one. 

For Circa Survivor contest:

We are leaning toward Jacksonville against the Texans. Or the Kansas City Chiefs against the Bears. I really want to just survive another week. But overthinking starts to get the best of us. Because perhaps I want to save Kansas City for Christmas. Geez, if we are still alive in the Circa Survivor Contest at Christmas, I will eat my shoe! But I don’t want to get all clever and start saving teams. By Christmas, KC could have clinched their division and have nothing notable to play for. Jacksonville seems like a safe win. But, it is a division game and with the NFL ANYTHING could happen! Here’s to week three! See you on the other side!