We are back! Last week, WaDawgs pulled out some great covers to bounce back from the horrific 4-1 week six. We made up some ground from the losses of last week. 

Here is a quick recap of our contests:

Westgate Supercontest (5-ATS per week): 5-0

• ATL +2.5
• Chicago +3
• Baltimore -3
• Philidelphia -2.5
• Seattle -8

Circa Millions (5-ATS per week): 4:1 (bc Val was determined to take those darn Rams!)

• LA Rams -3 (LOSS)
• Chicago +3
• Baltimore -3
• Philidelphia -2
• Seattle -7.5

Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Challenge at the Snoqualmie casino in Washington state:

We did 5-0 at our local home casino. 

• ATL +2.5
• Chicago +3
• Baltimore -3
• Philidelphia -2.5
• Seattle -8

Plus, to top an orgasmic week of football covers, we SURVIVED one more week of survivor! Like most contestants in the Circa Survivor contest, we took the Seattle Seahawks. We are still alive, and kickin’ play another week of survivor. 

So this week, we are looking to take the LA Chargers to win against the Bears for our Survivor pick. The Bears won handily against the Raiders in week 6, and the new rookie quarterback played with poise and confidence. Hoping they regress this week and lose to the Chargers. 

Let’s Get to the 5-ATS Leans for Week 8:

• Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5: This is a good spot for the Jags. The Steelers are coming off a big win over the Rams. A win that really came down to some serious luck for the Steelers and very bad luck for the Rams. Jacksonville has won some games that you would not have expected them to. Such as two international games that they won. Plus, traveling home and beating the Colts in a division game. Then, going to New Orleans and beating the Saints last week on Thursday’s prime-time game. Not to mention, the Jaguars are going into a bye next week. And teams do well when going into a bye.

• Washington Comanders +6.5: I love a home-dawg! While the Commanders have done me dirty in past bets, I still lean towards them covering the spread. It is a good bounce-back from the yuck loss to the Giants. This seems like a good time to fade the Eagles. The Eagles beat Miami beautifully, 31 to 17, so I am feeling a regression here. Plus, this is a ‘sandwich-game’ for the Eagles. The Eagles played their AFC rival, Miami, last week, and in week 9, will be playing their own NFC division rival, Dallas. So this is a great let-down spot for Philidelphia as they look ahead to teh Dallas challenge. 

• Miami Dolphins -9/-9.5: As I mentioned above, the Dolphins took a bad beat from the Eagles last week. They need this win to stay ahead of the Bills and win their division. While the New England Patriots need this win also, just to stay relevant, I think that Miami will easily cover. I actually have the math at Miami as a -11, so there is a couple points of value here. The spread, -9 and -10, are a lot of points to lay, but I’m going with the chalk here. Plus, New England is a dawg-favorite and on the road. Public dog favs tend to crash. 

• Green Bay Packers PK: Leaning toward the Packers. Not exactly sure why, bc my math doesn’t show any value. But my gut is saying, this is a short week for the Vikings and they are coming off a huge win to SanFran. So this would be a good time to fade Minnesota. Also, Green Bay is at home and they really, desperately need a win here. Jordan Love does play better at home (not counting that sad, sad Detroit game week 4). 
• Detroit Lions -8.5/-9.0: This is Monday night prime-time. And in all prime-time games anything can happen. But I am not seeing a upset here. I have the Lions at a -10.5 on my handicapping, so finding some value here. Detroit is at home, Goff plays well at home and in a dome. And after that bad beat by Baltimore, I see Detroit easily winning and covering the spread. While the Raiders played poorly and loss to Chicago last week, I don’t see them bouncing back.

• Seattle Seahawks -2.5: (Only at Snoqualmie Beat the Point Spread Pigskin Pick ‘Em ): At the Snowqualmie casino, our local casino nearby, they have the Seahwks spread for their contest at -2.5. The Circa and Westgate have them at a -3.5. So I like the idea of the Seahawks winning by a field goal. Now it does worry me that the ultra-strong defense of the Browns could have Gino Smith scrambling around with nowhere to throw. But I really like the extra value at a -2.5. 

• Cincinnati Bengals +6.0 (Only at Snoqualmie Beat the Point Spread): Again, it seems that the Snowqualmie casino is giving us a gift. They have the Bengals at +6. As opposed to the Circa and Westgate that have them at a +3.5. Sure, I hear what you might be saying, ‘the 49er’s could not lose a 3rd game!’. They don’t need to lose, as I could easily see the Bengals covering this +6 point spread. Not to mention, my numbers show the Bengals at a +4.5. So getting the Bengals at a +6, I like that value.

Thank you for listening to the WA DAWGS podcast. Wishing you all the best of luck on your games!

Val and Rob, WA DAWGS